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    Russia has replaced the general commander of special military operations, and General Sulovykin, who has rich experience in military operations, has become the new commander. However, it is not clear whether he can turn the tide of the war. In an interview with the Russian media, he also claimed that the army has problems such as insufficient supplies in the Kherson region, and that the Ukrainian army has obtained a large number of precision strike weapons from NATO. In the large-scale counter offensive of the Ukrainian army, the pressure on the Russian army is objective, so he may be forced to make difficult choices.

    Subsequently, the Russian side ordered the evacuation of civilians from the Kherson region, and built temporary gathering points in Russia to provide financial subsidies to evacuees. We have reason to believe that Russia is ready to fight a protracted tug of war with Ukraine in the Kherson region.

    The media of European and American countries claimed that Sulovegin was to lead the troops to retreat

    At present, Russia and Ukraine have two different explanations for the statement of General Sulovijin. The public opinion in the western countries says that the Russian army has been under great pressure after winter, and they cannot continue to block the counterattack of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, the statement of General Sulovijin represents that he may lead the army to retreat, and the early evacuation of residents is to protect the personal safety of civilians in the Kherson region, Because according to the inertia of the Ukrainian army, if they regain control of the Kherson region, they are likely to liquidate the local civilians.

    The Russian side claimed that their withdrawal from Kherson was an advance preparation for a larger scale counter offensive plan. General Alestovic, the head of the Russian military intelligence department, said publicly that the Russian Ministry of Defense had mobilized a large number of troops to the Kherson region, ready to launch a larger counter offensive after the assembly.

    According to the current trend of the Russian side, the possibility of the Russian army's withdrawal is not high, let alone the fact that Russia has transferred its elite airborne troops and marines to Kherson. We have reason to believe that the Russian army will launch a large-scale centralized counterattack.

    The Ukrainian army's attack was almost stopped, and their follow-up was weak

    In the Kharkov counterattack, the Ukrainian army did achieve some success and successfully recaptured a large number of Kharkov lands, but this does not mean that the situation in Russia and Ukraine has undergone a fundamental change. In fact, until now, the Russian army still has the strategic initiative and can launch a counter offensive against any of the defensive support points of the Ukrainian army. Moreover, the support from NATO is always limited, and a large amount of military equipment from NATO is also consumed at the front.

   According to the information released by the Russian side, since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, they have wiped out more than 100000 Ukrainian troops. Before the outbreak of the conflict, the regular Ukrainian troops have been basically exhausted. Ukraine may have to recruit a large number of temporary mobilized troops to the front, but it is not clear how much combat effectiveness these mobilized troops can have.