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    The vigorous Winter Olympic commemorative coin reservation ended. The central bank announced that the reservation rate was 94.93%, which was a little worse than the reservation rate of nearly 100% of the Centennial coin. More than 40 million of the former are abandoned, while the reservation rate for the Winter Olympic Games is a little lower, and the exchange rate may reach a new low. Commemorative coins have become chicken ribs. Where will they go in the future?

    Once upon a time, commemorative coins were a rarity. Bank insiders made profits from them, and people could only buy them at a high price. The reason is that the circulation is too small, from one or two million to 10 million to 60 million. The increase in the circulation of commemorative coins makes it easier to exchange, but the value gradually shrinks. Especially after 2015, the reservation system was implemented, with a maximum of 20 (one roll) per person, which completely destroyed the value of commemorative coins.

    Reservation system is a good thing for ordinary collectors. They can buy commemorative coins at low cost, but it is not beneficial to the appreciation of commemorative coins. Before the implementation of the reservation system, many people wanted commemorative coins. It doesn't matter. They can't get them. They can only buy them at a high price in the market. The original intention of buying them is also because of appreciation. If the face value is after the issuance, as it is now, the purchase desire will be discounted accordingly. It is the eternal truth in the collection industry that rare things are expensive. The commemorative coins have risen from 10 million to 500 million, and then to the current 200 million. The whole people can make an appointment, which makes the future of commemorative coins worrying.

    Although the population is 1.4 billion, the income of most residents is not high, and the official media have made mistakes. There are 600 million people in the country with a monthly income of less than 1000 yuan. Tens of millions of people may have real strength, spare money and interest in collecting. How many coin collectors are there? The circulation of the Winter Olympic Games is 200 million and 20 tickets are reserved for each person, which is enough for 10 million people. The actual situation is that many people reserve multiple volumes with other people's ID cards. In fact, less than 3 million people really make an appointment. This 3 million is almost the number of national commemorative coin collectors.

    It is impossible for adults to collect without considering the income at all, and only care about whether they like it or not. Only when the value of collectibles rises, can they attract more people into the pit and develop and grow, so as to form a virtuous circle. The old things are more and more valuable, and the new ones are not bad. But the reality is that after the launch of more than 150 million commemorative coins, although they have been popular for a while, some varieties have doubled, but they are fast and cool. The recent two varieties have skipped the stage of fire and directly cooled. Fortunately, the commemorative coins can be deposited back in the bank, and there is no loss in theory, but it also requires costs to obtain dozens or hundreds of ID cards, as well as express fees. If the appreciation is less than 10%, there is basically no profit to be made.

    In recent years, the commemorative coins, that is, the zodiac coins, are not bad, but they are only limited to rats and cattle, with an increase of more than 40%; Although the circulation of pigs, like rats, is 250 million, the price has not gone up; The circulation of monkey to dog is huge, especially the first two are as high as 500 million, which is basically the face value. In addition to the 120 million Taishan and Wuyi Mountains, and the 150 million Jianguo can basically be the same as the ox zodiac, the increase of other varieties is very small. The transaction cost of commemorative coins is high. Generally, sellers are required to package mail. SF is usually used. If the transaction volume is small, it would be a poor profit. If you package mail, there is basically no profit. Because of this, the two sets of coins in September and November were despised by investors.

    The exchange of Centennial coins began in September, and the market price did not rise. At the beginning of issuance, it only rose by 20%, and then it fell. After the second batch of scheduled listing, the increase has been reduced to less than 5%, which greatly limited the profits. The profits of transactions are basically earned by express companies. However, the central bank has not learned a lesson. She may think that as long as the reservation rate reaches 100%, it can prove that the market demand is high, but she does not refer to the market price and withdrawal volume. The Winter Olympic commemorative coins announced in November not only did not reduce, but increased by 20 million to 200 million, which is a manifestation of ignoring market rules and blindly encircling money. If there is no Centennial coin this year and only the Winter Olympic Games are issued, the market will obviously be much better, but the last lesson has just happened, who will favor Hushan.

    The reform of the issuance and exchange of commemorative coins lasted six years, and the circulation was changed from tens of millions to a minimum of 120 million and a maximum of 500 million, but it was also despised by the market. Driven by the appointment, the number of coin collectors has also increased a lot. A few years later, they found that they exchanged a lot of commemorative coins, but they can't circulate at all. It's not easy to sell at a high price. How many people will continue to linger on this road of no return? If the issue of commemorative coins does not decrease and circulation cannot be realized, the number of coin collectors will be greatly reduced, just as the number of stamp collectors will be reduced. How many of the new entrants came for the purpose of appreciation. In fact, not many really want to collect.

    The central bank now needs to do two things. As long as one thing is done, the commemorative coin will not be so embarrassed as it is now.

    First, reducing circulation is the most direct and effective. The growth rate of 120 million Taishan, 150 million cattle and Jianguo was ok, especially Taishan increased by more than 160%, which was more powerful than the previous 60-70 million commemorative coins. It seems that the volume of 120-150 million has a high market acceptance, and can even continue to reach 100 million or 80 million, which can ensure the scarcity. When the price rises, the number of participants will naturally increase, reaching a virtuous circle;

    Second, promote the circulation of commemorative coins. The current issue of commemorative coins is more than 100 million, which has fully met the conditions for circulation. In particular, the market price of several sets of more than 250 million varieties issued in previous years has risen by no more than 3%. As long as the central bank promotes, many of them should enter the circulation field. Circulation is equivalent to consumption, and the amount will naturally decrease. I believe that with the increase of consumption and the decrease of survival, these commemorative coins will still be full of vitality, which can also drive the overall commemorative coin market to become active.

    As long as the central bank can achieve one of the two points, the commemorative coin market will be revitalized immediately. If the two points are promoted at the same time, the commemorative coin market will be hot again.